Lando Norris lost 18 points from 2nd place and Oscar Piastri lost 12 points from 4th place in Las Vegas when -after the end of the race- the technical inspection found excessive wear (beyond the limits allowed by the regulations) of the wooden floor of the two McLaren MCL39s. Nevertheless, the Briton maintained a good 24-point lead at the top of the standings, over Piastri and Verstappen – as the Dutchman caught up with the McLaren Australian in the standings with his victory in Vegas.
If the two McLarens had not been disqualified, Norris’ gap to Piastri would have been 30 points and to Verstappen 42. Therefore, the only essential thing that changed with the disqualification penalty was that it gave the Dutchman more hope in his fight for his fifth consecutive championship.
Despite the points loss, however, Norris can still mathematically secure this year’s championship in Qatar, this weekend (November 28-30). Specifically, there are 58 points left in total – 25 for each of the last two races and 8 for the winner of the Sprint in Qatar. Consequently, Norris will be crowned world champion if after the Qatar GP he leads Piastrie and Verstappen by at least 26 points. However, the title cannot be decided in Saturday’s Sprint. Even if Norris wins the Sprint and his two rivals do not score points, the lead will reach 32 points with 50 available afterwards.
All the Briton needs over the weekend to become champion is to get two more points than Piastri and Verstappen, in order to increase the difference to 26 points and not be dragged into the psychologically damaging finale of Abu Dhabi.
We remind you that the Formula 1 points system in the Sprint race provides 8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points for the first eight, while in the main GP 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1 points are awarded respectively to the first ten. Therefore, we will have a clearer picture to consider the title scenarios after the Sprint next Saturday (29/11).
In possible tie scenarios, the picture is interesting: if Norris gets at least one point more than the two contenders in Qatar and wins the race, then he secures the title regardless of what happens in Abu Dhabi. In this case, Norris will have eight wins, Piastre seven and Verstappen six.
Even if Piastre wins in Abu Dhabi and Norris does not get a point, they will still be tied, but Norris will win the title because he excels in second places. Verstappen in a similar scenario will be behind in wins.
If Norris gets one more point than Piastre in Qatar but doesn’t win the race, then Piastre remains in the fight. He could theoretically win in Abu Dhabi, Norris not get points and win the championship due to more wins. The same goes for Verstappen if the Dutchman wins in Qatar and Norris is limited to second place and a win in the Sprint. Verstappen could tie the final with a second consecutive win and take the trophy due to more wins.
